The whole world is anxious about the Hydro Carbon products’ supply and demand balance. Some go to the extent of phobia. Prof. Kenneth S. Deffeye’s book titled. Beyond Oil had been in circulation with the professionals. Now it has become Red Warrants for several governments!

SARS epidemic was controlled in the Far East. The Bird Flue, has received due global attention and precaution. Hopefully it shall be prevented before it mutates to a pandemic for humans. HIV aids, thus-far, could be restricted in India, limited in China but remains rampant in Africa!!

Please do me a favour and treat aforestated apprehensions – as a preamble. Please accord due attention and careful consideration to the Hydrophobia which is being propagated and inflicted by the micro minority vested interests in Pakistan. They had been frightening the asinine with baseless reasons about the vital water reservoirs – across Indus. They are suffering from Presbyopia. NIH Islamabad, produces Sheep Brain Vaccine, which is proficient just for 20 % of the Hydrophobia virus. If we don’t build all the water reservoirs, which we can, right now, Our Future Generations would not condone our callous irresponsibility!!!

The strife is ripe. This world is inflicted with Hydrocarbon concerns. For most of the non oil producers, the energy security is fragile-at best. Mercifully the members of the OPEC club are not major consumers. Peoples Republic of China and India – comprising a major share of the world population – are fast emerging as industrial producers and energy consumers.

Case in point: In the Bible-belt of United States, a kindergarten school teacher, told her class that everything is made in Heavens. After the due pause, a child retorted:

"Ma’ame everything I have, is; Made in China"!?

You would appreciate producing all those things consumes a lot of extra energy. And this is ongoing, while both these countries have scarce hydrocarbon resourses of their own. Both of them are vying for extra oil and gas resources. Some times they cooperate but most often they compete. India has its own attitude towards its immediate neighbours. Their pleasant one is reserved for its neighbours’ neighbours!! Bangladesh is not amenable to sell its natural gas to India. Burma (Myanmar) is feeding gas to Thailand, but some how is not inclined to sell oil or gas to India. India also has a penchant for dedicated off-shore pipelines to avoid immediate neighbors’ territories. Myanmar’s vast Shwe Gas Field does have proven reserves of over three trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

Daewoo of South Korea, has already secured it with 60% stake. Iran does have Yadvaran an enormous field. It could be enlarged and developed into a reliable & sustainable supply source. Both India and China would like to have a piece of this pie. But Iranians are ultra conservative against production sharing. However, Iran must sell its oil and gas to sustain its economy. After much ado, India had agreed to consider onland Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline proposal. And has simultaneously prompted USA for securing American civilian nuclear energy technology. Iran too, wants to have its own nuclear energy development plans. Americans have very serious reservations about Iranian endeavor – although Iran is a signatory to Non-Proliferation Treaty. India is not.

The IAEA Board, scheduled to meet on 2nd & 3rd February. They did mate. Agenda was to discuss the issue of referral of Iran to the United

Nations Security Council. This once, the European Trio was also on-board with US. India is a voting member of the IAEA.

On 25th January, the American Ambassador David Mulford in New Delhi, had issued a sort of ultimatum; that if India would not tow American line, its prospects for Civilian Nuclear Power Projects’ cooperation with USA, would be jeopardized.

Hours later the usual diplomatic lubricated prophylactic of: "Personal Opinion", was applied. But the statement stays on record.

Within four weeks of IAEA Board meeting, President George W. Bush is scheduled to visit New Delhi and Islamabad. Hopefully the "Fire Fighters" would diffuse the situation before the visit.

Chances are that the good offices of President Putin would accord a via-media escape route. That’s what friends are for? China agrees. The loophole they insert, would be subject to litmus test by March 6th. That, of course may prove to be a decisive factor for IPI, prospects. Iran – Pakistan – India – Gas Pipeline.

The Iranian off-shore gas field is huge. Some say it contains 1,000 trillion cubic feet! And it could provide a sustainable supply of five billion cubic feet per day to Pakistan and India – for good thirty years. The raw gas would be collected and filtered onshore at Assaluhia. The IPI route to the destination/s is yet to be finalized. If it would be a single line, the diameter of the tube shall have to be sixty inches. Only X 100 quality steel would be able to to take the 2,200 to 2,400Ibs PSI pressure. Else, there could be twin 50inch diameter lines as an alternate option, with pressure in the range of 1,200 to 1400Ibs PSI. Nothing is finalized to date. Not even the pipeline itself. Indian petroleum minister Mani Shankar has already been relegated to a non-descript portfolio. His IPI pipe-dream has received a rude awakening.

Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan Gas Pipeline.

If, as, and when this project comes on line, it would originate from Daulatabad gas field, enter Afghanistan at Turkgundi, and traverse through the volatile country. If all goes well, it would transmit two billion cubic feet per day to Multan. Part of it would be dispensed in Afghanistan. Daulatabad gas reserve is estimated to be 22 to 24 trillion cuft – but it is subject to verification yet.

Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Bonanza.

Chevran along with European oil giants have already made multi-billion dollar investments in development and conduction of the precious Hydrocarbon products out of Kazakhstan.

They have a major inland field called Tengiz. The prominent offshore fields located in Kazakh part of the Caspian, are Kamangazy, Karachaganak and Kashagan. These offshore fields are dedicated to the better prospects and energy security of the European investors and consumers. Cehan, the Turkish port, is its delivery depot.

Turkmenistan, keeps on supplying, the entire energy demands of Ukraine thru the pipeline infrastructure of USSR era – now controlled by the Russians. They levy a pound of flesh, for each cubic metre delivered to Ukraine.

China’s Progress and Pro-Quests

Chinese have become very special. They have built a million metre pipeline from Atasu in Kazakhstan to Alashankou in Sinjiang – in 10 months! The massive Altai mountain range, a natural border, did not prevent or delay their progress. Now they intend repeating Herculean task, again. Moreover, they have already completed 4,500 kilometer main pipeline from Terim fields to Shanghai – in thirty months.

China’s oil and gas finds are located at rather distant ends of their landmass. Tasching oil field is located in the North-East and Terim in the middle of the Sinjiang desert – in the west. Both have quite a few thousand kilometers in between. Pardon me, but I nurse a personal regret about Tasching. Mr Wang Chang She made the discovery with bare hands, and antique drilling equipment – in the frozen flat land. He was killed or died without laurels – rightfully due to him.

The other option is from the north. Japan is funding a large pipeline from Russia’s Siberian fields. China has been able to secure the provision of a spur feeder, for its consumption – before the pipeline enters Japanese territorial waters. China has acquired oil + gas exploration/development rights from Angola and Sudan. And has courted Hugo Chavez of Venezuela for additional supplies.

Chinese state-owned companies had made a lucrative bid to acquire Unocal – the American energy company – proactive in South Asia. It was shunned down by American establishment. They also made an hectic effort to participate in the development of oil-soaked Canadian Tar Sands. Americans pre-empted the Chinese intrusion in their front yard.

Sera-e-Multani Baku

Sera-e-Multani is a prominent heritage building in Baku. It overlooks the Subedar’s Tower on the shore of Caspian. This tower has a tragic past. A young lady had jumped off, its turrets to her death. She was prevented from marrying her Romeo.

It used to be a snake-and-ladder game for Pakistanis to travel to Baku, during Cold War days. One had to have a passport valid for communist countries – which did not seem to exist during the SEATO & CENTO days. Russians were no less insecure. Visa was another hurdle. The applicant was suspect for both the countries. If and when visa was granted, the KGB took over. One had to travel to Moscow first – even to come back to Baku – the capital of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbeijan. Baku is fascinating to all oil professionals. It is the capital of the historic oil country.

The First World War was won with the aid of Baku oil springs and WWII was fought for the possession of Baku oil fields. At least, this is one of the primary reasons, not recorded in the standard history books.

History has, however, recorded the 11th century exploits of Hasan bin Sabbah the "Sheikh-of-the-Fort″. He was the architect and interior fabricator of a heaven on earth. He arranged the horas; the milk canals; and the Hasheesh. The Sheikh had raised the squads of Assassins – English lexicon for hasheeshins.

All rulers of the region paid tributes to The Sheikh – as their life insurance premium. Sheikh had "sleeper cells" of assassins in all princely courts of the era.

The legacy of this phenomenon was contested in the Bombay High Court during early quarter of the past century.

Synthesizers of virtual travelogues in vernacular, would hold grudge against this scribe. Because it actually happened! I met Laila in Sera-e-Multani, wayback in early eighties. She was the translator. Of course, KGB appointed. There was a formal but festive reception held for me, in the Serae, by the bosses of the Caspneftmorgaz of Azerbaijan.

I asked the the pretty translator, her name? ″Laila is my name ″, I said: ″If your name is Laila, from hereinafter, my name would be Majnoon!.″ She had a much unreserved laugh. Please remember Azerbeijan was, once, the province of Iran. Also, this is a professional piece of journal not a travelogue.

From thereafter, I had the best of arrangements. Laila and her female collegues in Moscow had the best of silver jewellary that Rangmahal craftsmen fabricated. And I had the best of reception.

Mr Armand Hammer, the Chairman of the Occidental Petroleum – always a – VIP guest in Moscow, once asked me, with due admiration: "Hey! Kid, how do you do it? ″I submitted: ″Boss, it would be an Oriental enigma, for an Occidental! He had a big laugh. He was a great man. I had once met him in Libya. His company had explored and developed the Kufra – Serecr oil fields in the most remote part of Libyan Desert.

Not-so-Neutral Neutral Zone

The Ottoman Empire was disintegrated, as a result of WWI. The British Empire met with the same fate after WWII! But after 1918 triumph, Britain was just great. They recklessly parceled out the Arabian peninsula part of the vanquished Turkish Empire. They created several puppet regimes and Trucial States. The British were very shy of the "over-achieving″ Jewish community. Europe, in general, had an inferiority complex, and almost total fiscal subjugation to the ″ House of Rothschilds″. Amschel Mayer Rothschild’s five sons controlled privy purses, in France, Italy, Austria, Germany and Britain, in 18th and 19th century. The House has a history of bankrolling wars. To either side! They have promoted the union of Europe and the state of Israel. They funded the purchase of Turkish Viceroy’s Suez Canal shares for Britain.

In the detailed history books, it is recorded that the Rothschilds were the first to utilize Semaphore message relays to transmit information faster – before the advent of telegraph.

For the scope of this essay, only one factor suffices. Rothschilds influenced the creation of Israel after WWI and have funded the immigrant Jews’ settlement/s. They also funded the premier American oil dynasty and a lot of mega infrastructure projects.

Neutral zone is a desolate territory, which falls amongst the countries of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. It is an inhabitable sector. Day time summer temperatures shoot beyond fifty degree Celsius. The British did not bother to apportion and allocate this ″ waste land″ to the respective contingent states, with defined borders.

American ERTS, Earth Resources Technological Satellites in 1970’s had indicated the presence of Hydrocarbon resources in the so-called Neutral Zone. Each one of the neighbours wanted to have the full control of the lottery. Saddam, by then, had all the four thousand battle ready Russian tanks and a claim over the whole of Kuwait. You know what happened in 1990.

Before that, Americans ″Eyes-in-Skies″, had informed the Saudi Government that if there was to be an Iraqi invasion, an excellent hard-flat-clay corridor in Saudi territory exists, – through which Iraqi tanks could traverse to Riyadh! Saudis accorded immediate consideration and the King Khalid Military City was built, at a cost of over three billion dollors. That American standard garrison town is built at the border town called, Hafar-ul-Batin, to pre-empt Saddam’s possible overture.

In addition to the Saudi defense precaution, Americans also arbitrated a truce in the matter of the NZ. By common consent, it was decided that oil & gas reserves of the NZ, be explored and estimated. Another clause stipulated that, if found commercially feasible, the NZ reserves be developed and exploited by an American oil giant: Getty Oil Co. And the proceeds be shared by the parties.

A place called Wafra was designated to be the centre of activities in the NZ. A Pakistani – Saudi JV, was selected to perform exploratory drill holes to establish the extent of the reservoir. Which proved to be very promising.

A Palestinian Arab with surname of Al. Husseini, then working for Kuwait oil Co, had access to the authentic reports of NZ progress and potential. He sold the information to Saddam’s operators. Iraqi oil operators had indented directional drilling tools from USSR. They wanted to sap the NZ oil, by positioning their rigs, as close to the the NZ reservoir, as possible. They planned to conduct the directional drilling operations, from inside their boundary.

This is about thirteen months before Her Excellency April Glysby duped Saddam Hussain into invading Iraq.

Cruzeiro-Yedigan

Cruzeiro and Yedigan (in Turkmen) are the ruling stars of Brazil and Turkmenistan, respectively.

Brazil in the South America and Turkmenistan in the Central Asia have great promise for the future. Brazil is the fifth largest country: both in population (170m) and size. It is self sufficient in oil and gas, plus ethanol. Brazil has the world’s largest freshwater reservoirs and abundance of hydel power. Its exports are growing at a rate faster than that of China!! Brazil has rather lax custody of the "Rain Forest″ and firm control over the global football.

With the right kind of rulers, investments in social and educational development, Brazil is sure to emerge as an economic super power! Turkmenistan, however, is land-locked. All the five million Turkmen habitate all the half-a-million square kilometers. They have the fourth largest gas reserves. And more than enough fresh water.

To facilitate Turkmen population in the Gorgon district of Iran, Turkmenistan had laid a gas pipeline – to the Iranian side of Alburz mountain range. If ever Afghanistan progresses to normalcy: Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan gas pipeline could become a reality. If Iran becomes "acceptable″ to the power-to-be, IPI gas pipeline, could receive ″permission″. In addition, Turkmen – Gorgon spur, could be extended to the gulf coast – as an additional energy supply line, from Turkmenistan.

Paulo-Post-Future

King Faisal bin Abdel Aziz Al Saud, the custodian, of the largest oil reserves of this planet, had the right fore-sight,. He had granted fifty million dollors to an American fund for the dedicated research for alternate fuel – thirty years ago! The incentive received a very slow start, although the monarch of oil rich Saudi Arabia had promised, more funding to follow.

President Gorge W. Bush is definitely late in his realization. The issue did receive merit in his State-of-the-Union address MMVI! Now he wishes to have less American dependence on oil from the volatile region!! Like the "man-on-the-moon″ John F. Kennedy declaration, maybe, American technologists would meet the challenge – as per their glorious precedent.

During early part of the next decade, if Pakistan discovers an offshore oil reservoir and commences the construction of all the dams across Indus – we too, would write a new chapter!

Ps Please forgive me, I have taken you around to less familiar oil fields, without any romantic interlude. Professionals are seldom as crafty as the vernacular travelogue fabricators.